THE WATCHLIST:
The heat is (still) on HRW wheat
A sparse Watchlist after rain in Argentina. Worries about US HRW wheat remain, but are a minor influence on prices for now.
AUSTRALIA
Australia’s winter crop planting will start in April, within the weather forecast horizon. Australia’s winter crop regions are mostly dry. This time of year, that dryness is not unusual in most places, and there is plenty of time for rainfall to accumulate. Forecasters do not expect that to change the east or west in the week ahead. Southern areas, however, are likely to get some further rain. The most immediate likely issue is in the north-east, where planting is earliest. Southern Queensland and northern NSW have had an unusually dry summer.
That unusually dry summer cut Australia’s summer crop yields sharply in this region. Yields for still-developing dryland crops likely continue declining, but that would be a small proportion of summer crops.
WORLD
WHEAT
Most northern winter crops are likely to begin spring growth with adequate soil moisture. Crops are likely in good condition. Western US HRW Wheat regions, with little or no soil moisture, remain a worrying exception. Forecasters expect little rain here, so that is unlikely to change for another week or so. High temperatures through the weekend and forecast for some of next week are likely weakening crops. Analysts are more likely to cut crop forecasts, so the region remains an ‘alert’. The issue is large enough to support wheat prices, especially HRW. Prospective global wheat supply likely has enough comfort to absorb these losses.
COARSE GRAIN
Worries about Argentina’s corn regions will likely be extinguished this week. Most of the dry regions in Buenos Aires received surprisingly good rains last week. Forecasters expect the remaining dry regions to receive substantial rain this week. The rain was/is very timely. Whether these regions will completely avoid yield loss is unclear, but material losses have been avoided. The global price impact is likely negligible given the alert’s impact had been modest at most.
OILSEEDS
The alert on soybeans in the same regions of Argentina has also been removed. The rain last week and forecast for this week perhaps helped ease oilseed prices a little. Other issues, though, were likely far more influential.
Southern Summer Crops
Northern Winter Crops
Southern Winter Crops
Watchlist clear for now.
Northern Summer Crops
Watchlist clear for now.
