THE WATCHLIST:
The heat is on HRW
US HRW wheat crops’ latest travail is heat this week. And, Australia likely sees some useful rain this week.
WHEAT
Further yield declines are likely in many western US HRW Wheat regions over the next week or so. Rainfall over the past week was again too light in the problem region. Weather forecasters expect little rain in the week or so ahead. Worse still, forecasters expect some very high temperatures through much of this region. The market’s crop forecasts are likely still falling. Still lower crop forecasts are a supportive factor for prices, but perhaps are not large enough to outweigh other influences.
Other northern winter crops have adequate soil moisture and are likely in good condition. Two other issues are on the wheat market’s radar, but not on The Watchlist.
Australia‘s winter crop regions are likely to see some rain over the next fortnight. Forecasters expect southern and eastern areas to get useful rain over that time. Those forecasts are consistent with normal seasonal patterns. The west, though, is likely to see only light rainfall. That pattern is not unusual for May in the west. Median rainfall for WA’s crop regions is low until early June. Together, that means no ‘watch’ for Australia yet.
The dry-ish spring wheat regions on either side of the Canada-US border are a lesser issue. These areas need rain soon, but the rain required is modest. Forecasters are eyeing some rain events in more distant forecasts, but have ample time to evolve.
COARSE GRAIN
Coarse grain crops continue to have no major issues. Northern summer crops mostly have supportive or better planting soil moisture. Australia’s dry winter crop regions remain on the back burner for now.
Our ‘watch’ on several of Brazil‘s second-crop corn areas has ended. Much of this area got useful rain over the past week, eliminating any immediate crop concerns. Brazil’s Centre-West is steadily becoming drier. That trend has some concerned. We are still reluctant to get too worried about this trend, largely because it is not abnormal this time of year.
OILSEEDS
Oilseeds lack any weather issues for now. Northern summer crop planting is largely supported by good soil moisture.
Southern Summer Crops
Watchlist clear for now.
Northern Winter Crops
Southern Winter Crops
Watchlist clear for now.
Northern Summer Crops
Watchlist clear for now.
