THE WATCHLIST: Think local, not global
A week where some small issues will get worse. Summer crops in France and Spain will shrivel in the heat. And Australia’s Queensland extends its too-dry start to the season. Both are problems for growers and their local customers – but not for global markets. Any likely production loss can be absorbed by existing supply. And crops elsewhere look more ‘good’ than those two look ‘bad’.
WHEAT
Wheat has few weather risks for now. Northern winter crops are mostly maturing or being harvested. Any likely weather risk is now modest.
Australia‘s winter crop regions are mostly okay or better. Forecasters expect at least some rain in most areas over the next week or so. Queensland remains an exception. This region has had modest moisture at most since planting. Forecasters do not expect that to change for another week or so. The region, therefore, remains a ‘watch’. The area’s wheat production is modest in global terms, so this concern is more likely to impact local basis than global prices.
COARSE GRAIN
Coarse grain crops have a couple of modest issues.
Young crops in France and Spain have likely suffered badly over the past week or so. These regions have been on the dry side since planting began. The extreme heat over the past week or so will have damaged emergent crops. The timing means that lower crop forecasts are likely so these regions are now an ‘alert’.
Dry weather in Australia‘s Queensland is also relevant for feed grain. The production at risk is modest, so the global impact is at most minor. The impact on local feed basis is likely larger given the modest summer feed crops in this region.
The overall market impact is likely modest in global terms, for a couple of reasons. One, global supply is already healthy. Two, other northern summer crops are in good shape. Market impact, therefore, is likely supportive at most.
OILSEEDS
Oilseeds continue with few specific risks for now. Northern summer crop planting remains supported by mostly good soil moisture. The dry areas of France are an issue, but are too small to have any market impact for now.
Northern Winter Crops
Watchlist clear for now.
Northern Summer Crops
Southern Winter Crops
Southern Summer Crops
Watchlist clear for now.
