THE WATCHLIST: Thin
France and Spain’s summer crop areas are dry and likely to remain that way for another week or more, so a watch is warranted. Likewise, winter crops in Australia’s Queensland. At-risk production is modest, and no forecast downgrades are imminent, so global price impact is minimal for now.
WHEAT
Wheat has few weather risks for now. Northern winter crops are mostly maturing or being harvested. Any likely weather risk is now modest.
Australia’s winter crop regions are mostly okay or better. Forecasters expect more rain in southern areas this week to boost soil moisture. Queensland is the exception. That region has only had modest and sporadic moisture since planting began. Forecasters think that it is unlikely to change for another week or so. This dry bias has now gone on long enough that it warrants a ‘watch’. And, with El Niño now in place, the required catch-up is less likely (but not impossible). The area’s wheat production is modest in global terms, so this concern is more likely to impact local basis than global prices. More importantly, the concern is new, so even local markets might watch rather than react.
COARSE GRAIN
Coarse grain crops have a couple of modest issues.
France and Spain have been on the dry side since summer crop planting began. The dryness has worsened over the past week or so. And, forecasters do not expect enough rain to lift these regions’ moisture profiles. These regions are, therefore, now a watch. Market impact is likely minimal for now because there is plenty of time for corrective rain.
Dry weather in Australia‘s Queensland is relevant here too. Again, the production at risk is modest, so the global impact is at most minor. The impact on local feed basis might be larger, given that summer feed crops were modest in this region.
Market chatter about dry second-crop corn regions in Brazil has dwindled with the collapse in corn prices. Other northern summer crops mostly have supportive or better planting soil moisture. In China, parts of Henan, Shaanxi and Shanxi have dried recently, but forecasters expect rain in those provinces over the next week or so.
OILSEEDS
Oilseeds continue with few specific risks for now. Northern summer crop planting remains supported by mostly good soil moisture. The dry areas of France are an issue, but are too small to have any market impact for now.
Southern Summer Crops
Watchlist clear for now.
Northern Winter Crops
Watchlist clear for now.
Northern Summer Crops
Southern Winter Crops
