THE WATCHLIST:
Tabula all but rasa
The world’s crop regions are largely looking good, so we have nothing on The Watchlist. US HRW wheat losses have likely come to an end. Parts of Brazil and Europe are dry, but timing blunts any impact on crop forecasts.
WHEAT
The dry US HRW Wheat regions have seen a little rain. Forecasters expect a little more this week. High temperatures, though, meant crops benefited little. We expect the losses to end now, though, because it is late in the season. Analysts are thus unlikely to be cutting crop estimates much more. The market impact will thus wane further.
Other northern winter crops have adequate soil moisture and are likely in good condition. France and Spain have become dry, but crops are largely mature, and harvesting is imminent.
Seasonal rainfall is accumulating in Australia‘s winter crop regions. Much of the east and south has now seen rainfall. Queensland rain pleasantly surprised last week, easing nascent concerns. Weather forecasters expect more rain this week in the south and west. That rain will be a useful top-up in the south, especially in South Australia. And the west looks likely to receive substantial rain over the next week or so. All up, few concerns in Australia for now, but an El Niño shadow over spring remains.
COARSE GRAIN
Coarse grain crops continue to have no major issues for now. The dry portion of Brazil‘s second-crop corn areas is expanding. To a large extent, though, this is seasonally normal. Some of these crops are also mature, and harvesting will soon start. Last year was even drier at this time. The chances of an overall downgrade to Brazil’s second corn crop remain modest.
Northern summer crops mostly have supportive or better planting soil moisture. Drying in France and Spain is a topic for market chatter, but it is somewhat early for ‘watch’.
OILSEEDS
Oilseeds lack any weather issues for now. Northern summer crop planting remains supported by mostly good soil moisture.
Southern Summer Crops
Watchlist clear for now.
Northern Winter Crops
Northern Summer Crops
Watchlist clear for now.
Southern Winter Crops
Watchlist clear for now.
