THE WATCHLIST:
HRW wheat conditions to decline
Heat last week likely damaged US HRW Wheat. Only potential rain this week is preventing cuts to crop forecasts.
AUSTRALIA
Australia’s winter crop planting is due to start in April. Australia’s winter crop regions are mostly. Dryness is not unusual this time of year in most places. Rainfall is usually modest until the end of April, so plenty of time remains for rainfall to accumulate. We continue to have a slight concern about Southern Queensland and northern NSW. These regions are some of the earliest to plant, and are unlikely to receive much rain over the next fortnight.
Australia’s summer crops are largely maturing or being harvested without interruption.
WORLD
WHEAT
Southern winter crops are now on the horizon for Australia, but it is very early. Most northern winter crops continue to have adequate soil moisture and are likely in good condition.
Western US HRW Wheat regions are the worrying exception. These crops suffered from last week’s intense heat. And from the prior week, the USDA’s Kansas winter wheat condition dropped to just 40% good or excellent. Another decline in this Tuesday’s report would be unsurprising. Widespread losses are likely not far away. Forecasters expect some rain through the alert region this. That rain prospect has quelled a move to cut crop forecasts. The rain forecasts need to be realised; otherwise, analysts are likely to cut crop forecasts. The issue has supported wheat prices, especially HRW. Therefore, the rain is consequential for prices. Prospective global wheat supply can absorb these losses. However, if fertiliser issues impact wheat production elsewhere, that would magnify the impact of any HRW losses.
COARSE GRAIN
No weather issues here for now. Northern summer crop planting has begun.
OILSEEDS
No weather issues here for now. Northern summer crop planting has now begun.
Southern Summer Crops
Watchlist clear for now.
Northern Winter Crops
Southern Winter Crops
Watchlist clear for now.
Northern Summer Crops
Watchlist clear for now.
