THE WATCHLIST:
US wheat wilting
No moisture, and searing heat, are likely damaging US HRW wheat.
AUSTRALIA
Australia’s winter crop planting is due to start in April. Australia’s winter crop regions have a mixed moisture profile. Dryness is not unusual this time of year in most places, and there remains plenty of time for rainfall to accumulate. Many western regions saw substantial, sometimes heavy, rain from cyclone Narelle. Much of that moisture will likely evaporate before crops are planted. We have a slight concern about Southern Queensland and northern NSW. These regions have some of the earliest planting, and are unlikely to receive much rain over the next fortnight.
That unusually dry summer cut Australia’s rainfed summer crop yields sharply. Most crops are now maturing or being harvested, so further large downgrades are unlikely.
WORLD
WHEAT
Southern winter crops are now on the horizon for Australia, but it is very early. Most northern winter crops will begin spring growth with adequate soil moisture. Crops are likely in good condition. Western US HRW Wheat regions are the increasingly worrying exception. These areas are very dry. And, forecasters expect little rain here to change that. High temperatures through the weekend and, likely, the early days of this week. The USDA has reported a decline in Kansas overall, and is most likely concentrated in the west. Widespread losses are likely not far away. Analysts are more likely to cut crop forecasts, so the region remains an ‘alert’. The issue is large enough to support wheat prices, especially HRW. Prospective global wheat supply can absorb these losses. The potential losses might take on greater significance if fertiliser issues impact wheat production elsewhere.
COARSE GRAIN
No weather issues here for now. Northern summer crop planting will now ramp up through April.
OILSEEDS
No weather issues here for now. Northern summer crop planting will now ramp up through April.
Southern Summer Crops
Watchlist clear for now.
Northern Winter Crops
Southern Winter Crops
Watchlist clear for now.
Northern Summer Crops
Watchlist clear for now.
