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THE WATCHLIST: Wheat worries, real and imagined
US HRW wheat crop cuts are real. El Niño problems for Australian wheat are still imagined – for now. Australia’s May rainfall forecasts might change that.
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THE WATCHLIST: US wheat crop drops
Western HRW areas have been on The Watchlist since February. Now, analysts are cutting US HRW wheat forecasts.
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META: GW3 & Mastering Your Domain
GW3 breaks “normal” frameworks—and that’s exactly when analysts can add the most value, but also risks missteps.
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THE WATCHLIST: HRW wheat conditions to decline
Heat last week likely damaged US HRW Wheat. Only potential rain this week is preventing cuts to crop forecasts.
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THE WATCHLIST: US wheat wilting
No moisture, and searing heat, are likely damaging US HRW wheat.
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TURF WAR: Gulf War 3, Nitrogen and Crops
Gulf War 3 (GW3) has potentially large consequences for crop commodities. Interruptions to fertiliser supply are a major channel of impact. Fertilisers account for a major component of commodity crop yields. Corn, with northern planting starting, is the most exposed to GW3 interrupting nitrogen supply. Corn prices have gained the…
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THE WATCHLIST: The heat is (still) on HRW wheat
A sparse Watchlist after rain in Argentina. Worries about US HRW wheat remain, but are a minor influence on prices for now.
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MARKETS: Gulf War 3’s Flurry and Fallout
Commodity price responses to major geopolitical events tend to follow a flurry-then-fallout pattern. Initially, a flurry generates extreme price volatility. Then, once the event is better understood and a likely path emerges, prices gravitate to levels consistent with the fallout. Until then, as we are experiencing now, deep uncertainty prevails.
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THE WATCHLIST: Too much heat for HRW wheat
Some US HRW wheat crops face a tough week. And somewhat lower corn and soybean yields are likely in Argentina. Both are supportive of prices, but are likely to be easily absorbed by prospective global supply.
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THE WATCHLIST: Edge cases
Crop worries remain. Lower yields remain likely in parts of Argentina. And the ‘watch’ on US HRW wheat remains slow for now.
