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THE WATCHLIST: All Clear
The Watchlist remains clear. Market chatter continues about dryness in parts of Australia, Brazil and France. None of those, though, are likely to drive imminent changes to crop forecasts.
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THE WATCHLIST: Tabula all but rasa
The world’s crop regions are largely looking good, so we have nothing on The Watchlist. US HRW wheat losses have likely come to an end. Parts of Brazil and Europe are dry, but timing blunts any impact on crop forecasts.
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THE WATCHLIST: The Good Place
Most of the world’s crops either have good soil moisture or can soon expect some rainfall. From a weather perspective, crop prospects are good. US HRW wheat remains an exception, but even this issue might soon be resolved.
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THE WATCHLIST: June looms larger
Early June rainfall forecasts loom large for Brazil’s corn, and Australia’s winter crop, regions. And, yes, the US HRW wheat crop is still shrinking.
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TURF WAR: Hard Times for Hard Red
The US’s 2026 Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat crop has faced a litany of weather challenges. The wheat market is thus on track to lose much of its US inventory buffer. The market will now become more sensitive to crop markdowns, in the US or elsewhere.
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THE WATCHLIST: The heat is on HRW
US HRW wheat crops’ latest travail is heat this week. And, Australia likely sees some useful rain this week.
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THE WATCHLIST: Is a Hard Red rain gonna fall?
US HRW wheat crops continue to decline while awaiting rain. Australia remains largely dry, with end-May rainfall forecasts now critical. Elsewhere, worries are minor.
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THE WATCHLIST: El Niño nerves
Australia starts May with little rain in an El Niño year. US HRW wheat finally has a chance for rain, and so a halt to falling yields. A minor area of Brazil’s second crop corn is a new ‘watch’.
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THE WATCHLIST: Wheat worries, real and imagined
US HRW wheat crop cuts are real. El Niño problems for Australian wheat are still imagined – for now. Australia’s May rainfall forecasts might change that.
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THE WATCHLIST: US wheat crop drops
Western HRW areas have been on The Watchlist since February. Now, analysts are cutting US HRW wheat forecasts.
