THE WATCHLIST:
Exhibit closed
Now is generally a quiet time for crop risk. And this year is no exception. We can identify the odd small or nascent issue, but it would be a stretch to suggest they might influence global prices.
AUSTRALIA
Australia’s major summer crop regions look better after recent rain. More rain this week and next is likely useful. We continue, though, to expect somewhat lower dryland crop yields.
WORLD
WHEAT
The northern winter means wheat crops there are increasingly dormant, leaving cold as the only, unlikely, risk.
COARSE GRAIN
Argentina’s dry north-west has been scratched from The Watchlist, so we have no active crop risks for coarse grain.
OILSEEDS
Oilseeds have no current issues. And, concerns about Brazil’s patchy rain are being dispelled by greater and more widespread falls.
Southern Summer Crops
Argentina‘s summer crop soil moisture has evolved over the past week. Rain last week and likely this week in the north-west has eased dryness for now. Therefore, these regions are ‘unwatched’. The crop south-west, by contrast, has dried out over the past week. Forecasters do not expect substantial rain until next week. Most of these areas have had good soil moisture at times, so crops are likely robust enough to endure a brief period of stress. Central Cordoba into central San Luis is perhaps an exception. This whole area needs the rain forecast for next week, otherwise worries will grow. The market impact is likely limited for now.
Brazil’s summer crop region rainfall proved heavier and more widespread than expected last week. Forecasters expect a similarly good amount and spread of rain over the next week or so. This rainfall means the patchy moisture pattern earlier this season has been erased. And any questions over yields will be dispelled for now. The market is now likely more confident of existing crop forecasts.
Australia’s major summer crop regions received some useful rain last week. The week ahead likely sees some rain too. The rain is enough to be useful for dryland crops – but only for a limited period. High temperatures, though, mean that evaporation will claim much of that moisture. Dryland crops are thus likely to become stressed at times. We continue to have the region at ‘alert’, meaning dryland crop downgrades are likely. Given that the issue affects only dryland crops, the global market impact is minor.
Northern Winter Crops
The northern winter means that crop dormancy is spreading. The main risk to crops now is extreme cold weather. Forecasters, though, do not expect extreme cold in any winter crop regions without snow cover. So, there is no specific risks from the cold at this point. There are several ongoing dryness issues in some regions. These issues, though, will not manifest until the northern spring. And winter precipitation might yet fix those issues.
Southern Winter Crops
Southern winter crop harvesting will likely continue with only minor weather interruptions. These events are unlikely to generate major delays or crop quality issues.
Northern Summer Crops
Northern summer crop harvesting has largely come to an end. We’ll resume monitoring in the northern spring.
