MARKETS:
Hinge moment for CoT history
CoT reports have now started to catch up with the price rises from mid-October. The next few reports likely show that investors’ short bias has gone. So investor positions should be more neutral, or perhaps a little long.
MARKETS: Hinge moment for CoT history
Tuesday’s CoT data publication is the first for the period when prices rose sharply from mid-October lows. At stake here is how investors are now positioned. We expect bearish positions to diminish over this and the next few reports. The question is, did the market only reduce the short and spread positions? If so, then investors’ positions will be more neutral. Or was there also another leg of investor buying that helped lift prices? If so, then investors’ positions will eventually be somewhat long.
The bearish investor positions were both outright short and (likely) short-near/long-far spreads. For investor positions on 14 October, the short version is:
- Soybeans: largish short, record spread;
- Corn: largish short, near-record spread;
- Wheat SRW: near-record short, near-record spread, AND near-record long;
- Wheat HRW – record short, record spread, AND large long.
The 21 October data showed that:
- investors had begun to cut their short positions, but…
- their spread positions were little changed;
- the cuts were large in corn and soybeans, but very modest in wheat.
The tables below compare the positions as of 14 and 21 October.
