THE WATCHLIST:
Little ado about not much
Global crop weather risks continue to be very modest.
AUSTRALIA
Australia’s winter crop harvesting likely continues with little interruption. Summer crop region rainfall is likely useful but remains somewhat just-in-time.
WORLD
WHEAT
A couple of modest US winter wheat issues remain. Dormancy is spreading across northern winter crops. The period of extreme cold risk has now started. Forecasters have few specific risks for now. These risks though can emerge (and dissipate) quickly.
COARSE GRAIN
Argentina’s dry north-west remains a ‘watch’. The crop risk, for now, is not large enough to have much market impact.
OILSEEDS
Brazil’s north-east likely sees much-needed rain over the next week or so. The rain likely eliminates soybean crop risk for now, so the region has been unwatched.
Southern Winter Crops
Australia’s winter crop harvesting is again likely to proceed uninterrupted in most places.
Argentina’s winter crops are unlikely to see interruptions to maturing and harvesting over the next week or so.
Brazil’s winter crop harvesting continues. Forecasters expect another week of dry weather. That context means few worries about crop quality or harvesting interruptions.
Southern Summer Crops
Most of Brazil’s soybean and first-crop corn regions already have enough soil moisture to support. The dry north-east was an exception. Forecasters expect substantial rain events in the north-east over the next week or so. Thus, the region is off ‘watch’. The rain events will, of course, need to be realised.
Argentina‘s corn and soybean regions mostly have enough soil moisture to support crops. The north-west, though, remains a ‘watch’. A little rain last week helped. But, likely less rain this week, along with warm temperatures, means soil moisture will become too low. The central-west also likely gets drier but did have useful moisture more recently. The ‘watch’ might extend to this area by next week. For now, corn is the ‘watch’ crop. Soybeans, planted later, are not yet a concern.
Australia’s major summer crop regions have better soil moisture after last week’s rain. Weather forecasters expect useful rain in most of these regions over the next week or so. The moisture will provide a start for dryland crops, but the need for rain is ongoing.
Northern Winter Crops
Two US winter wheat regions remain a watch.
The western edge of the US Hard Red Winter Wheat region remains too dry for healthy dryland crops. Forecasters expect little precipitation in the region this week, likely leaving soil moisture little changed. Temperatures are now falling. Forecasters expect a couple of very low temperature periods over the next fortnight. Those lows may be a risk to crops in parts of the watchlisted regions. This risk can flare and dissipate quickly. The amount of wheat at risk is not large.
US White Winter wheat regions also continue to face issues. Dryland crops in much of the region were likely losing yield. Forecasters now expect temperatures to drop into a range that sees crops become dormant. Therefore, the moisture becomes less of an issue. We have thus set much of the region to ‘Losses’ for dryland crops. The risk for these crops now becomes very cold temperatures. And that risk is magnified by the likely poor condition of these crops. For now, forecasters do not have any specific risks of killing cold.
Winter crop regions in Ukraine and Russia remain somewhat patchy. Many regions have enough soil moisture to support early crop development. Other areas have limited moisture, but are problematic. Forecasters do not expect that to change much over the next week or so. The moisture issue is becoming less pressing as temperatures fall. Crop dormancy has begun in some parts of these regions. More will follow over the next week or so. The risk is now more about cold until snow cover arrives. China‘s winter crop regions are likely to continue to have good soil moisture. Much of Europe is similar. France and Spain, on the dry side, saw some rain last week. Forecast rain likely helps crops over the next week or so. Cooler temperatures make these issues less pressing.
Northern Summer Crops
Remaining summer crop harvesting is likely to proceed smoothly. Forecasters expect no more than sporadic interruptions to that harvesting. Weather-driven changes to crop forecasts are now highly unlikely.
