THE WATCHLIST:
Brazilingering
Brazil’s patchy rainfall, and an emerging La Niña, generate lingering doubts.
AUSTRALIA
Australia’s winter crops remain on track to be large. Summer crop regions are seeing some rain, but need more.
WORLD
WHEAT
The wheat ‘watch’ shrinks a little, leaving two worries about US winter wheat.
COARSE GRAIN
Brazil’s first-crop corn – much the smaller of the two crops – is a ‘watch’.
OILSEEDS
Brazil’s soybean crop regions need to realise forecast rainfall, not have another week of ‘unders’.
Southern Winter Crops
Australia’s winter crops remain very likely to be large. Crops in Western Australia’s interior are likely to receive useful rain this week. Thus we have ‘unwatched’ those regions. Late-season rain in the south and east has the potential to slow crop progress and create quality issues.
Most of Argentina’s winter crop regions will likely continue to have good, and sometimes abundant, soil moisture. The westernmost areas remain a shade dry but are likely to get some rain this week, allaying any concerns. Last week’s cold snap seems to have been mild enough not to raise widespread concerns. Forecasters expect another cold snap this week but, for now, it is unlikely to do widespread damage. Argentina remains likely to produce large winter crops.
Brazil’s winter crop harvesting continues. Rain in much of Rio Grande do Sul is likely to interrupt harvesting. And perhaps raise quality or disease issues.
Southern Summer Crops
Brazil’s soybean and first-crop corn regions continue to have patchy soil moisture. The south has abundant moisture. Large proportions of the centre-west and centre-east, though, are unusually dry for early November. Forecasters expect the weather pattern to deliver moisture to these regions over the next week or so. Those forecasts are masking disquiet about dryness for now. The forecast rain needs to be realised in the driest regions, otherwise the worry level will rise. The market is thus going to be sensitive to forecast evolution this week. Forecast realisation has been patchy so far this year, so we have these areas as a ‘watch’.
Australia’s summer crop regions remain on the dry side despite some rain last week. Weather forecasters expect useful rain in most of this region over the next week or so. The western parts of the region are likely to see less rain. Dryland crops here might start to struggle without rain soon. The overall wetter trend is comforting.
Argentina‘s corn regions are likely to see improved soil moisture. Soybean planting will now ramp up in some regions. Most regions will continue to have plenty of moisture. The west and north continue to be on the drier side, but likely get enough rain to allay any major worries.
Northern Winter Crops
Two US winter wheat regions remain a watch. The west and south-west US Hard Red Winter Wheat regions are still too dry. Parts of the watch region did get a little rain last week. Forecasters expect little or no rain over the next week or so. Crops here had starting moisture, but the lack of rain since will likely see crop condition deteriorate somewhat. The deterioration might also make crops more vulnerable to cold as winter descends. The crop downgrade risk, though, remains minor for now.
US White Winter wheat regions’ situation continues to evolve a little. Idaho likely sees some useful rain. Oregon and Washington, though, are again likely to miss out. Dryland crops in those two states have had very little moisture through autumn to date, so they are likely in poor shape. Lower crop forecasts are likely imminent here. The long period of unusually low rainfall means irrigation reservoir levels are well below normal. Thus, the rest of the region remains an alert.
Rain last week improved soil moisture for most winter crop regions in Ukraine and Russia. The latter still has some significant areas where soil moisture is likely patchy. Forecasters do not expect that to change much over the week or so ahead. A renewed ‘watch’, though, is not required for now. China‘s winter crop regions have excellent soil moisture. As does much of Europe, but France and Spain are on the dry side.
Northern Summer Crops
Summer crop harvesting will continue to progress quickly in many places. Forecasters expect little sustained weather interruption in most regions. Weather-driven changes to crop forecasts remain unlikely.
