THE WATCHLIST:
US wheat, not so sweet
Some US HRW wheat regions join The Watchlist, as Russia and Ukraine leave. Brazil’s wet season continues its spluttering start, prompting a nascent worry about soybeans.
AUSTRALIA
Australia’s winter crops remain on track to be large, despite an issue in Western Australia’s interior. Summer crop regions are likely to, at last, see some wet season rain.
WORLD
WHEAT
The wheat ‘watch’ rotates. Ukraine and Russia are now off The Watchlist. Some US Hard Red Winter regions have been added. They join White Winter Wheat regions and small part of Western Australia.
COARSE GRAIN
Coarse grain continues without any major worries. A small segment of Argentina’s corn is ‘unwatched’.
OILSEEDS
Oilseeds have no major weather issues for now. Markets, though, will continue to watch Brazil’s weather closely to confirm a wetter trend.
Southern Winter Crops
Australia’s winter crops remain very likely to be large. The problem regions are modest compared to strong yields elsewhere.
Crops further into Western Australia’s interior remain as an ‘alert’. Soil moisture declines last week were more modest than expected. These interior regions are unlikely to get much rain over the next week or so.
Most of Argentina’s winter crop regions likely continue to have good or better soil moisture. The drier western areas got some useful rain last week. Forecasters expect more rain in those areas this week, eliminating any dryness concerns. Nonetheless, crops elsewhere are thriving, making overall crop downgrades unlikely. Cold temperatures early in the week might be an issue for some parts of Buenos Aires and La Pampa.
Brazil’s winter crop harvesting continues. Forecasters expect a welcome, drier week. That context will allow for maturation and harvesting. And will pause concerns about crop quality. Large crops remain very likely.
Southern Summer Crops
Australia’s summer crop regions are now mostly dry. Rain is needed to provide a start for dryland crops. Weather forecasters expect substantial in most of this region over the next week or so. This rain will be useful. Also, the rain is perhaps a sign that the northern wet season is finally starting.
Argentina‘s corn regions are likely to see improved soil moisture. Most regions already have plenty of moisture. The main evolution is in the previously dry west and north. These areas got some rain last week. And, forecasters expect enough rain to further increase soil moisture. We have, thus, ‘unwatched’ these areas. Argentina corn crop forecasts remain more likely to be upgraded than downgraded.
Some of Brazil’s soybean and first-crop corn regions continue to have patchy soil moisture. The centre-west and centre-east saw some useful rain last week. Forecasters expect substantial rainfall over the next week or so in those central regions. If the rain falls as forecast, then crops are likely on track. The market, though, will be watching to see whether these forecasts are realised. Realisations on forecasts have tended to undershoot of late. A continuation of that pattern, in a La Niña context, might raise some concerns.
Northern Winter Crops
We added a ‘watch’ on the west and south-west of US Hard Red Winter Wheat regions. This area has seen only scant rain in October. Forecasters expect that pattern to prevail for another fortnight. Crops here, planted into reasonable moisture, got a start. The cumulative lack of rain since will likely see crop condition deteriorate somewhat. In addition, the deterioration might mean crops are more vulnerable to cold as winter descends. The crop downgrade risk is minor for now.
US White Winter wheat regions’ situation has evolved a little. Idaho has seen some rain, and likely sees more this week, but soil moisture remains marginal. Oregon and Washington saw little rain last week and will likely see little in the week ahead. These states have had so little moisture that dryland crops are likely in poor condition, if they have emerged at all. The region’s irrigated crops are also a worry. The long period of unusually low rainfall means irrigation reservoir levels are well below normal. Looking now into November, we have bumped the region up to ‘alert’.
We have removed the watches on winter crop regions in Ukraine and Russia. The region received useful rain last week. Forecasters expect more rain in the next week or so. The soil moisture gains are likely enough to help crops develop, even if more rain will be needed.
Northern Summer Crops
Summer crop harvesting will continue to progress quickly in many places. Forecasters expect little sustained weather interruption in most regions. In China, forecasters expect that wet weather harvest interruptions in some regions to decline. Weather-driven changes to crop forecasts remain unlikely.
