THE WATCHLIST:
Brazil ‘bean watch
As La Niña approaches, it is time to err on the side of caution for South American crops. Brazil’s modest early October rains are enough for us to ‘watch’ their soybean regions. The clock also continues to click, if not all that loudly, for Black Sea wheat regions.
AUSTRALIA
Australia’s excellent crop prospects face a test in the coming weeks from a dry period and warming temperatures.
WORLD
WHEAT
The big watch on wheat around the Black Sea continues. A little rain this week is helpful, but it is unlikely to be enough to dissolve the issue. There remains time for moisture to accumulate and start crops. Mid-October looms as the time when the issue might influence prices.
COARSE GRAIN
Coarse grain only has a few minor crop weather worries for now.
OILSEEDS
The major addition to The Watchlist is a large chunk of Brazil’s soybean regions. Forecasters expect October rainfall to have a spluttering start. There is still plenty of time for rainfall to accumulate. However, a developing La Niña event is a good reason to err on the side of caution. The potential for weather patterns to deviate from normal is higher than usual. And, this watch is global scale.
AUSTRALIA
Winter Crops
Australia’s winter crop regions mostly have enough soil moisture for now. The seasonal rise in temperatures will accelerate crop moisture demand and evaporation. Crops thus need rain to deliver on their current promise. Forecasters expect little rain over the next week or so. Any worries, though, are likely a week or more away in most places.
Some southern interior regions remain an exception. These regions, if not dry already, will likely be dry by next weekend. The problem region, though, has shrunk because of unexpected rain last week. However, the tough start for these crops likely means that yields will be below normal.
Queensland’s unirrigated crops, from north of the Darling Downs and up, have likely seen some yield loss. However, this late in the season, further losses are unlikely. The impact on Australian crop estimates is likely modest.
WORLD
Other Southern Winter Crops
Argentina’s winter crop regions mostly have adequate or better soil moisture. Forecasters expect enough rainfall in the week ahead to maintain that status. Rainfall last week alleviated any concerns about northern crop regions.
Brazil’s winter crop harvesting is now starting. Harvesting and maturing will have to work around rainfall to some degree. Crops that are still developing have abundant soil moisture. Crops are likely large.
Northern Winter Crops
Growers continue planting 2026 northern winter crops. Two existing watches remain. The most important is a ring around the Black Sea. The other is White Winter wheat regions in the US north-west.
Black Sea winter crop regions remain a major ‘watch’. The watch region saw soil moisture decline last week despite a little rainfall. Forecasters expect some rain in this region in the next week or so. Whether soil moisture will rise enough to give crops a healthy start is unclear. There remains time for more rain to fall. The expected rain this week will alleviate any worry about a dry October for now. We are, thus, still a couple of weeks away from this worry having much influence on markets.
US White Winter wheat regions are very dry, but are a chance of useful rain this week. The rainfall amounts are a start on replenishing the region’s soil moisture and reservoir levels. We have not removed the ‘watch’ for now. The forecast rain event needs to verify and deliver. And, the region needs more rain than this to recover.
Southern Summer Crops
Southern summer crop planting is quickening. The La Niña context is an important element of this season’s crop watch. The Watchlist will thus err on the side of more watches.
Australia’s summer crop regions are mixed. Much of Queensland likely remains dry, providing a poor context for crop planting. However, being so early in the season, there is time for moisture to accumulate. Moreover, with a La Niña event likely, the bias is to more rainfall.
Argentina is now in the main corn planting window. Many corn regions have good or better soil moisture. Weather forecasters expect enough rain in those regions to maintain or raise soil moisture. Some western and northern regions, though, have a dry starting point. Forecasters expect some rain here, but it is unclear whether that will raise soil moisture enough. We thus have these regions at ‘watch’. These concerns do not extend to soybeans yet because planting is still a month or so away.
Brazil’s soybean regions are mixed. In the south, moisture is abundant, providing an excellent planting context. However, large swathes of the centre-west and centre-east are very dry. These dry regions grow a very large share of Brazil’s soybeans. Forecasters expect that dryness to persist for at least another week or so. That outlook is somewhat worrisome, given that October rainfall is important to crop prospects. Plenty of time remains for rain to fall, but it must start to register in forecasts and projections soon. The La Niña context, though, tips the scales in favour of a ‘watch’ for these regions.
Northern Summer Crops
Ukraine and Russia’s summer crops are now being harvested with little weather interruption.
In the United States, rain has halted the soybean yield decline in the northern Mississippi Delta and adjacent areas. A new threat to crops in the Carolinas has emerged. Weather forecasters expect a combination of weather, including Hurricane Humberto, to produce strong winds and rain deluges. The event can potentially result in crop damage and losses. The exact track of the event is not certain, so the impact could be zero. The region is more important for cotton, but it does grow modest amounts of corn and soybeans. The scale could reduce US crop estimates a little.
Corn crop losses in parts of Europe are now set for the season.
Canada’s Prairies are now reaching the late stages of harvesting. Weather forecasters expect rain interruptions to subside this week.
