THE WATCHLIST:
Live Transition
Crop weather risk will fade for another week or so. Now is late in the season for northern summer crops. And very early for southern summer and northern winter crops. However, the very big, but also very slow, watch on Black Sea wheat continues.
AUSTRALIA
Australia’s winter crops will mostly continue to have sufficient or better moisture. Queensland is an exception, needing rain now. The southern interior will soon need rain. Forecasters are suggesting this region will indeed get some rain. Whether that will be enough rain is uncertain.
WORLD
WHEAT
Growers are now planting 2026 northern winter crops. We have a big, slow watch on wheat. The main watch is around the Black Sea. A ring from Bulgaria, traversing Romania and southern Ukraine, to southern Russia likely remains very dry. There remains plenty of time for moisture to accumulate and start crops. Thus, crop risk and market impact remain low for now. However, the region’s production is too important to ignore.
COARSE GRAIN
The hiatus for weather risk to coarse grain crops will continue for another week or so. Northern summer coarse grain crops are now largely either maturing or being harvested. In that context, new threats to these crops’ yields are much less likely. No new threats do not mean there is no uncertainty about what has already happened. The market, thus, is still debating yield forecasts. The next risk phase is starting. Growers are starting to plant southern summer and northern winter crops. That early-stage planting means next-phase worries are minimal for now.
OILSEEDS
Oilseed weather issues continue to cut yields somewhat but that will soon end. US soybean yields likely continue to decline in the northern Mississippi Delta and surrounds. As are oilseed crop yields in the Black Sea region. Both issues, though, are factored into crop forecasts. Thus they are also factored into prices. The next-phase risk, for now, is largely Brazilian soybeans. But we remain at least a week away from any issue emerging for that crop.
AUSTRALIA
Australia’s winter crop regions mostly have enough soil moisture for good or better crops. The same two exceptions are Queensland and the southern interior.
Queensland likely remains too dry for unirrigated crops. Temperatures will now be high enough to stress crops. Therefore, cuts to crop yield forecasts are likely soon. There are a couple of significant mitigations that reduce the impact on production. One is the significance of irrigation in the region. The other is that, this late in the season, many crops will be mature and so suffer little impact. The scale of losses is, therefore, likely modest, and the price impact localised.
The southern interior is dry now. Weather forecasters and models, though, expect some rain in the region over the next week. The rain is well-timed because temperatures are rising. This region had a tough start, so yields are likely to be below normal. This outlook, though, suggests the region may avoid further declines. This area’s production is significant in Australian terms, but the global weight is modest.
WORLD
Other Southern Winter Crops
Both Argentina and Brazil’s winter crop regions continued to have good or better soil moisture. No issues here for now.
Northern Summer Crops
Ukraine and Russia’s summer crop issues are winding down into the northern autumn. Sunflower and soybean yields are still perhaps declining. Forecasters expect no rain relief that would halt those losses.
In the United States, soybean yields likely continue declining in the northern Mississippi Delta and adjacent areas.
Corn crop losses in parts of Europe are now set for the season. Forecasters expect no significant interruption to crop harvesting and maturing.
Canada’s Prairie crops are now largely either in the maturing or harvesting stage. The region experienced some very low temperatures over the past weekend. And low enough in some places to potentially harm crops. The scale of the impact is likely modest in quantity terms because it is late in the season. Most crops are already mature. And we are approaching the mid-point of harvesting.
Northern Winter Crops
Growers are now planting 2026 northern winter crops. Two watches are current. The most important is a ring around the Black Sea. The other is White Winter wheat regions in the US north-west.
The watch on Black Sea winter crop regions has expanded somewhat. The watch region now covers more of Romania, Ukraine, and Russia. Forecasters again expect little rain and high temperatures in the region. Soil moisture gains are thus unlikely. The market will be mindful of this issue because the region grows a large chunk of the world’s wheat. However, being so early in the season, there remains plenty of time for rainfall and moisture accumulation. The crop risk, and so market impact, is therefore low for now.
US White Winter wheat regions are very dry for now. Forecasters expect the region to see some rain over the next week. The rain is a good sign for a region that has had so little in recent months. The region remains a ‘watch’ because it still needs a lot more rain for crops to have a healthy start.
Southern Summer Crops
Southern summer crops are on the market’s radar, but there are few worries for now.
Rain doused Argentina’s summer crop regions last week. The soil moisture starting point thus looks good for corn crops.
Brazil’s soybean regions likely remain very dry for another week. The dryness is normal for this time of year, so there is no cause for concern. Encouragingly, a little rain is emerging on the horizon. That projected rain is consistent with the normal pattern for rain increasing from late September.
