THE WATCHLIST:
The big, slow wheat watch
Growers are planting a hefty chunk of northern winter wheat in dry soils.
AUSTRALIA
Australia’s winter crops mostly have enough moisture. Queensland is an exception, needing rain soon.
WORLD
WHEAT
Growers now start planting 2026 northern winter crops. The watch consists of two regions. Around the Black Sea. And US north-west. Both regions are dry now and likely remain that way for another week or so. Crop risk, for now, remains low. There remains plenty of time for moisture to accumulate and start crops.
COARSE GRAIN
Weather risk is passing for northern summer coarse grain crops. Crop losses will soon end in Europe, Ukraine and Russia. Weather-related risks are thus reduced for at least a fortnight. The next rise in the weather-risk will come as we progress into the southern spring. The market will then assess southern summer and northern winter crop planting conditions.
OILSEEDS
Oilseed weather issues continue to cut yields somewhat. US soybean crops are dropping yield in the northern Mississippi Delta. Also, sunflowerseed and soybean crops continue shrinking across Europe, Ukraine, and Russia. Neither issue is new, and both are now reflected in crop forecasts. Brazil is starting to plant 2026 soybeans but meaningful assessments are fortnight away.
AUSTRALIA
Australia’s winter crop regions mostly have enough soil moisture for crops to prosper. There are two exceptions, Queensland and the southern interior.
The most urgent exception is in Queensland. Much of that state is too dry for unirrigated crops. Now that temperatures are rising, these crops need rain soon. Forecasters expect little rain in the region this week. Weather models, for now, are projecting useful rain the following week. Hopefully that projection is realised. However, we are reluctant to rely on that, so the area warrants a ‘watch’. The “unirrigated” qualification is significant because it limits the influence on overall production.
The less urgent exception is in the southern interior. We already have this region marked for some production losses because of a largely dry start. This area has gained a little soil moisture recently, but successful crops would require much more. Fortunately, time is still on these crops’ side because temperatures are still cool. Forecasters expect little rain in the week ahead so this exception likely persists for another week. This area is more significant in Australian terms, accounting for 5-10% production. The global weight, though, is modest. Thus, if the issue does worsen, the impact will be on local pricing and basis.
WORLD
Other Southern Winter Crops
Argentina’s winter crop regions continued to have sufficient soil moisture. Rain over the past weekend likely extinguished worries about the western edge.
Brazil‘s winter crop regions likely continue with abundant moisture. Indeed, any problems here are far more likely to be generated by too much, rather than too little, rain.
Northern Summer Crops
Ukraine and Russia‘s issues saw two evolutions. Firstly, corn crops are passing the point where dryness will further reduce yields. Those regions have been set to losses. Oilseed crops, though, can probably still decline more. Secondly, the western edge of the Watchlisted regions got some unexpected rain, so they are unwatched. The remaining sunflower and soybean crops will continue to drop yield. Forecasters expect little rain and high temperatures for another week.
United States’ issues centred on the northern Mississippi Delta and adjacent areas evolved in a couple of ways this week. Firstly, parts of the region received unexpected rain that either prevented or ended yield losses. Secondly, the issue splits more decidedly between corn and soybeans. For corn, it is now too late in the season to do much damage, so corn losses are now set. For soybeans, yields are likely still declining. While not large scale, the losses are contributing to the market generally lowering yield estimates.
Corn crop losses in parts of Europe likely come to an end over the next week or so. These crops are now in their maturing and harvesting phases.
Canada’s Prairie crops are now largely either in the maturing or harvesting stage. Forecasters expect mostly suitable conditions for both phases over the next week or so. Despite some yield declines earlier in the season, crop forecasts stabilised some time ago.
Summer crops in China are unlikely to develop any weather issues over the next week or so.
Northern Winter Crops
Growers will begin widespread planting of 2026 crops over the next week or so. A couple of regions are already a ‘watch’. A ring around the Black Sea is the most important. Less important, but still material, are White Winter wheat regions in the US north-west. These watches are at low risk of translating into lower crop forecasts for at least another fortnight.
Many Black Sea winter crop regions are likely to remain too dry. Forecasters expect a little rain and high temperatures. That combination suggests almost no soil moisture gain. The ‘watch’ region grows a large chunk of the world’s wheat. Markets will thus have an eye on the issue. However, being so early in the season, the crop risk is low. There remains plenty of time for rainfall and moisture accumulation.
US White Winter wheat regions are very dry. Forecasters expect little rain in the region for another week or so. And with high temperatures, any moisture gains will likely be fleeting. So, we have this region on ‘watch’. Watches for this region normally come with a caveat about widespread irrigation. The irrigation mitigation, however, is also under threat. This region has been unusually dry for much of this year. So, without substantial rain soon, irrigation water supply may also be threatened.
Southern Summer Crops
Southern summer crops are increasingly on the market’s radar. The weather forecast horizon now reaches mid-September, so we have some idea of the moisture starting point for some crops. But only some. Some growers are already planting corn and soybean crops in both Argentina and Brazil. But, of the major planting windows, only Brazil’s soybean window has started.
Most Brazilian soybean regions are very dry. And weather forecasters are still not expecting anything that will boost soil moisture. A dry context is quite normal at this time of year and so is not cause for concern. The worry would start if there is no rain in late September. And we are a fortnight away from any useful weather forecasts for that time.
