THE WATCHLIST:
Peak your interest
Coarse grain crop forecasts have likely peaked for now.
AUSTRALIA
Australia’s winter crop prospects continue on track to meet pre-season expectations. The southern interior remains vulnerable because of likely light rainfall. Other parts of Australia remain likely to offset any decline in the southern interior. Weather issues are unlikely to prevent prices and basis from following their normal seasonal paths.
WORLD
WHEAT
Wheat has no active crop worries for now. And that clean slate likely continues until at least the end of August. Growers will start planting 2026 northern winter crops in September.
COARSE GRAIN
Are we at, or perhaps passing, a peak for coarse grain crop estimates? Last week, the USDA massively increased its US corn crop estimate. And CONAB made a hefty, and long-anticipated, increase to its Brazil corn crop estimate.
Those estimates will anchor the market’s crop forecasts at these higher levels. That anchoring will do two things. One, the market’s forecast range will be much narrower. And, two, the risks around those forecasts become symmetrical. In that forecast context, increasing corn crop losses across Europe, Ukraine, and Russia are important. And even more minor issues count. The US’ northern Delta is too dry. And then there are the minor downsides of the US’ wet summer. These issues will go nowhere near offsetting last week’s additions by the USDA and CONAB. But they can stabilise global crop forecasts at modestly lower levels for now. Or, at least until 2025 southern summer crops blink onto the market’s radar.
OILSEEDS
Oilseed weather issues continue to worsen. Sunflowerseed and soybean crops are shrinking across Europe, Ukraine, and Russia. The US has a smaller and less urgent issue in parts of the Mississippi Delta. The Old World issues are large enough to materially reduce global oilseed supply. And that reduction might matter more given the US market continues to fret about replacing China as an export destination. So, these issues can generate some support for prices.
AUSTRALIA
Most Australian winter crop regions likely continue to have adequate or better soil moisture. The southern interior likely remains the exception. Forecasters, yet again, expect only light rain in this area. This area needs substantial rain before temperatures rise. Otherwise, further crop downgrades are likely.
WORLD
Other Southern Winter Crops
Argentina’s dry western crop areas are all likely to receive useful rain this week. So, we have taken these areas off The Watchlist.
Brazil‘s winter crop regions will continue to have abundant moisture.
Northern Summer Crops
Crops are likely shrinking in parts of Russia and Ukraine. The past week saw little rain and high temperatures. Forecasters expect that pattern to persist for much of the next week. The persistent lack of soil moisture means production potentials are likely shrinking. Thus, much of this area has been set to ‘losing’. The losses still have the potential to expand too. The limitation on crop losses may end up being time rather than the weather. In another fortnight, many of these crops will be maturing or mature, and so readying or ready for harvest.
United States’ summer crop worries are modest in scale but will likely deteriorate this week. Part of the ‘watch’ region in the Delta and adjacent areas has gone to ‘alert’. Forecasters expect a temperature and rain combination that further reduces soil moisture. And this pattern has now been going on for long enough to make lower yields more likely. The timing and location mean this is more of a soybean issue than a corn issue. And, importantly, the share of production is modest. The impact may prove to be enough to cap overall US soybean crop forecasts, but is unlikely to change the overall picture of a high-yield summer.
Crops losses are spreading in Europe. The ‘losing’ regions have scant soil moisture. And, forecasters do not expect enough rain for that to change. No moisture and warm temperatures will combine to cut yields further. Last week’s USDA WASDE made special mention of these regions and cut their production forecasts.
Canada’s Prairies, as forecast, received good rains last week. The soil moisture gains were enough to halt yield declines. And, this late in the season, it will likely be enough to ‘finish’ crops. The rain was likely too late to reverse earlier yield declines.
Summer crops in China are unlikely to develop any weather issues over the next week or so.
Northern Winter Crops
The peak of northern winter harvesting will now pass. The planting of 2026 crops will begin in September.
Southern Summer Crops
Brazil’s second-crop harvesting is now drawing to a close. We will resume monitoring again when planting starts later this year.
