THE WATCHLIST:
Summer will be summer
Some bigger weather worries emerge in the US, Ukraine and Russia.
AUSTRALIA
No change to the Australian part of The Watchlist. Parts of the south and much of Queensland remain at ‘alert’. Both regions get ‘some’ rain this week – but will that be enough to fend off lower crop forecasts?
WORLD
WHEAT
Wheat has few crop worries. Worries cover a modest part of Australia’s wheat regions for now. And some of Argentina’s winter crop regions remain a ‘watch’ but are not yet close to cutting yields. These worries cover only a modest share of production. Thus, these worries will have little impact on global prices.
COARSE GRAIN
The coarse grain market has substantial weather worries for the first time this northern summer. The new watches – in the US, Ukraine and Russia – cover a material chunk of world production. Thus worries are large enough to lift prices, and likely started to do so last week.
OILSEEDS
Oilseeds also have more watches this week after a near blank slate. The same weather issues in coarse grain also impact soybean and sunflower seed crops. The scale, relative to global production, is smaller. So, the price impact is smaller: somewhere between support and a modest boost.
AUSTRALIA
Australia continues to have at-risk regions in the south and Queensland. Forecasters expect both areas to get some rain this week. Whether that will be enough to take either region off the list is unclear. Other areas are okay for now. Winter temperatures likely mean that crop moisture demands are modest for now.
WORLD
Other Southern Winter Crops
The ‘watch’ region in Argentina, as forecast, got a little rain last week. Expectations for the week or so ahead, though, are for largely dry weather. Thus, the region remains a ‘watch’. Crop forecasts remain unlikely this early in the season.
Brazil‘s winter crops will likely continue to have abundant moisture to support crop development.
Northern Summer Crops
Some US summer crop regions have been added to The Watchlist for the first time this season. Forecasters expect higher temperatures across summer crop regions in the week ahead. For most areas, soil moisture and/or additional rain mean this will be beneficial. The south-west and Delta areas, though, will likely see little rain. So, these areas are now a ‘watch’.
Russia and Ukraine summer crop regions are also added to The Watchlist this week. A sharp temperature rise resulted in a quick drop in soil moisture. Forecasters expect a little rain this week. Warm temperatures, however, mean soil moisture gains will be fleeting. So, a ‘watch’ for this region.
Europe’s west has been hot and dry. Forecasters, finally, expect ‘some’ rain in this region about a week away. Temperatures, though, will also be warm at times. So, how much of the moisture will benefit crops is uncertain. We have thus left the region at ‘losing’ yield for now. The dry region in Europe’s south-east got some useful rain last week. Most of this area is, thus, unwatched. Only Bulgaria remains an issue.
Summer crops in China, and Canada, for now, have no emerging or actual issues.
Northern Winter Crops
Growers are well into harvesting northern winter crops. Weather forecasters expect few sustained interruptions from rain. Thus, the flow of production to market will likely ramp up.
Southern Summer Crops
Brazil’s second-crop harvesting should proceed without interruption this and next. Harvesting is running behind previous seasons. That lag, though, is primarily due to late planting rather than any weather interruptions.
