THE WATCHLIST:
Still too dry in Argentina
A large chunk of Argentina’s corn and soybean crops remains too dry. Along with the same in far-south Brazil, the watch is global market scale. Healthy global supply means the watch supports, rather than boosts, prices.
AUSTRALIA
Australia’s major summer crop regions likely get some rain this week, arresting the decline in dryland yields.
WORLD
WHEAT
Northern winter wheat crops are largely dormant. Forecasters do not expect any threats from extreme cold in the week ahead.
COARSE GRAIN
Argentina’s dry regions remain a ‘watch’. As is a smaller region in far-south Brazil.
OILSEEDS
Dry soybean regions in Argentina and Brazil are a bigger share world oilseed production.
Southern Summer Crops
A large chunk of Argentina‘s summer crop regions remain on The Watchlist. Last week’s weather proved to be better than forecast, with somewhat more rain and lower temperatures. Forecasters expect less favourable conditions in the week ahead. We have thus left the ‘watch’ area unchanged. The ‘watch’ covers a hefty chunk of Argentina’s corn and soybean production, and is also significant at global scale. Healthy global supply, though, means this watch is more likely to support prices, rather than boost them.
Brazil’s summer crops continue to enjoy mostly good conditions. Forecasters expect significant rain in most regions. The rain will be helpful for developing crops, but will slow maturation and harvesting in some places. All up, the conditions support forecasts for large, or perhaps larger crops. Brazil’s far south is an exception for now. The southern parts of Rio Grande do Sul are now quite dry, reflecting the same conditions present in Argentina. We have now a ‘watch’ on this area. Forecasters expect some useful rain in the region this week. Whether that will be enough to restore soil moisture is uncertain. Production at risk here is material, but not enough on its own to affect global prices. Brazil’s soybean crops remain likely to be larger.
Australia’s major summer crops continued to suffer in high temperatures. Still-developing dryland crops likely saw yields decline further. Irrigated crops likely fared better but were likely stressed. Forecasters expect some useful rain over the next week or so. Along with lower temperatures, the context is better for crops. The best case for dryland yields, though, is stabilisation, not recovering losses. These losses have been one source of higher feed prices in the local market. Australia’s dryland production, however, is not large enough to impact the global prices.
Northern Winter Crops
Northern winter crops are mostly dormant. The main risk to crops remains extreme cold weather. Forecasters do not expect extreme cold in any regions without snow cover in the week ahead.
Southern Winter Crops
Monitoring will resume in the southern autumn.
Northern Summer Crops
We’ll resume monitoring in the northern spring.
