THE WATCHLIST:
Still quiet
The Watchlist remains light on. A couple of minor worries – for Argentina’s corn and US wheat – are unlikely to have much market impact.
AUSTRALIA
The west of Australia’s major summer crop regions are too dry. That dryness has now persisted for too long, likely meaning dryland crop potentials are falling. Australia’s winter crop harvesting likely continues without major interruption.
WORLD
WHEAT
A couple of modest US winter wheat issues remain, but crop dormancy is starting to pause this issue. Crops remain at risk from extreme cold. Forecasters, however, not expecting any extreme cold events for now.
COARSE GRAIN
Argentina’s dry north-west remains a ‘watch’. The corn crop risk, for now, is too modest to have much market impact.
OILSEEDS
Oilseeds have no current issues. Brazil’s patchy rain pattern, though, remain on the market’s radar.
Southern Winter Crops
Winter crop harvesting in Australia and Brazil likely continues with only minor weather interruptions. Weather forecasters expect rain in most of Argentina’s winter crop regions. The amount will perhaps slow harvesting a little, but is unlikely to generate major delays or crop quality issues.
Southern Summer Crops
High temperatures dried Argentina‘s corn and soybean regions over the past week or so. Forecasters expect enough rain and somewhat lower temperatures to reverse that trend over the next week or so. We, therefore, have not expanded the ‘watch’ region in Argentina. The forecast rain, though, is almost critical for the north-west. These areas have been dry for some time now, so young corn crops there need moisture soon. Without rain, lower crop forecasts become likely. The region’s production share is modest, so global market impact will also likely be modest.
Brazil’s summer crop regions continue to see a patchy rain pattern. Last week, as forecast, saw a generous soil moisture boost in previously dry regions in the north-east. The rain eliminated any immediate concerns. The patchy rain pattern means that southern Mato Grosso and northern Mato Grosso do Sul have dried down. Forecasters expect these areas to get enough rain over the next week or so to avoid any issues. A drier turn in the forecasts would change that assessment. And, given these are major soybean regions, that worry would quickly support or boost soybean prices.
Australia’s major summer crop regions dried down over the past week. Weather forecasters expect little rain for much of the region this week. The western parts of the region have now been dry for some time. Dryland crops are likely struggling and are thus a ‘watch’.
Northern Winter Crops
Two US winter wheat regions remain a watch.
The western edge of the US Hard Red Winter Wheat region remains too dry for healthy dryland crops. Forecasters expect little precipitation in the region this week, likely leaving soil moisture little changed. Temperatures are trending down to winter levels, so crop dormancy will spread, pausing this dryness issue. Forecasters do not expect temperatures to drop to threatening levels in the next week or so. Last week’s cold risk passed without major incident, so we notched the region back from ‘alert’ to ‘watch’.
Some US White Winter wheat regions remain too dry. Dryland crops in much of the region were likely losing yield. Dormancy now means this issue is paused until the northern spring. These crops are at risk from extremely cold temperatures until snow cover accumulates. For now, however, forecasters are not expecting temperatures will fall to threatening levels.
Winter crop regions in Ukraine and Russia remain somewhat patchy. The region varies from enough to limited soil moisture, but none are problematic for now. Forecasters do not expect that will change over the next week or so. Moisture levels are becoming less pressing as temperatures fall. Crop dormancy has begun in some parts of these regions. Likely temperatures also mean little cold risk for now. Much of Europe is similar. France and Spain are on the dry side. Forecasters expect rain over the next week or so to prevent an issue emerging. Cooler temperatures also make any issue less pressing. China‘s winter crop regions have good soil moisture for early crop development.
Northern Summer Crops
Northern summer crop harvesting has largely come to an end. We’ll resume monitoring in the northern spring.
