THE WATCHLIST:
Sparse
Other than a couple of US wheat watches, crop weather worries are minimal.
AUSTRALIA
Australia’s winter crop harvesting speeds up with little weather interruption. Summer crop regions likely get some rain, but not enough in some places.
WORLD
WHEAT
A couple of US winter wheat watches is the extent of The Watchlist for now.
COARSE GRAIN
Rain in Brazil means there are now no significant weather worries for coarse grain.
OILSEEDS
Brazil’s soybean crop regions likely get useful rain, so they are ‘unwatched’.
Southern Winter Crops
Australia’s winter crops are unlikely to experience widespread weather problems over the next week or so. A cold snap in the south-east is, for now, unlikely to cause widespread harm to crops. Rain interruptions to crop maturing and harvesting are likely to be brief.
Most of Argentina’s winter crop regions will likely continue to have good, and sometimes abundant, soil moisture. Western areas, previously on the dry side, received substantial rain last week. That rain means the chances of major dry weather worries have now dropped sharply. Threats from too much rain or cold snaps remain, but they are lower probability possibilities. Argentina’s crops are very likely to match high forecast levels.
Brazil’s winter crop harvesting continues. Forecasters expect a drier period in Rio Grande do Sul. The drier weather should quell worries about crop quality and speed up harvesting.
Southern Summer Crops
Brazil’s soybean and first-crop corn regions are off The Watchlist. Good rain last week was helpful, if patchy. Forecasters expect more widespread rain over the next week or so. The rainfall is now looking more seasonable, allaying fears about early crop development for now. We, therefore, ‘unwatched’ these regions. So, no specific crop risk for another week or so, but time remains for new issues to emerge. Southern regions have abundant moisture. Forecasts for lighter rain here will allow growers to quickly conclude planting.
Australia’s summer crop regions continue to be on the dry side. Last week’s rain did not increase soil moisture as much as hoped. Weather forecasters expect useful rain in much of the region later this week. The rain would likely raise soil moisture in some parts but not others. The forecast wetter trend is comforting, but the realisation seems to have been short of late. Dryland crops need rain soon to get a good start.
Argentina‘s corn and soybean regions mostly have enough soil moisture to start crops well. The central-west and north-west are on the dry side now. Forecasters expect enough rain to resolve any issues in the north-west. The central-west’s evolution is less clear, given likely modest rain. The area is not large, and its production is modest, so it is unlikely to concern markets this early in the season.
Northern Winter Crops
Two US winter wheat regions remain a watch. The western edge of the US Hard Red Winter Wheat region is too dry. Forecasters expect little rain in the region for another week or so. These areas are now approaching a month and a half with marginal soil moisture at most. Crops here have thus likely deteriorated already, and that likely worsens over the next week or so. The chances of a forecast downgrade are growing, so we have thus bumped the region up to ‘alert’.
US White Winter wheat regions remain an issue, even as the situation evolves a little. Idaho and bordering Washington got some useful rain last week, taking the ‘alert’ there down to watch. Dryland crops in central Oregon and central Washington are likely losing yield. The rest of the region remains close to that point. Irrigated crops are also at risk here. Months of unusually low rainfall mean irrigation reservoir levels are well below normal.
Winter crop regions in Ukraine and Russia are still somewhat patchy. Many regions have enough soil moisture to support early crop development. Other areas, though, could do with more moisture, but are not yet problematic. Forecasters do not expect that to change much over the week or so ahead. A renewed ‘watch’, though, is not required for now. China‘s winter crop regions likely continue to have good soil moisture. As does much of Europe. France and Spain are currently on the dry side, but forecast rain is likely to alleviate that over the next week or so.
Northern Summer Crops
Remaining summer crop harvesting is likely to proceed smoothly. Forecasters expect no more than sporadic interruptions to that harvesting. Weather-driven changes to crop forecasts are now highly unlikely.
