THE WATCHLIST:
Rollover to October
We now roll into a period where growers are planting more South American crops. For now, there are no issues, but Brazil’s crucial October rains are now within the forecast horizon. The big watch on Black Sea wheat continues. Here too, rain by October is required and will soon be within the forecast horizon. Without rain, this watch would soon start to influence prices.
AUSTRALIA
Australia’s winter crops mostly continue on a track for normal or better yields. Queensland has likely seen some yield loss, but that likely ends soon. The southern interior is again at risk. Low soil moisture and warming temperatures in this region are a threat to yields. The production at risk suggests any impact will largely be on local basis.
WORLD
WHEAT
Growers are now well into planting 2026 northern winter crops. Our big, slow watch on wheat around the Black Sea continues. A ring from Bulgaria, traversing Romania and southern Ukraine, to southern Russia likely remains too dry. There remains time for moisture to accumulate and start crops. Thus, crop risk and price impact remain low for now. Should the dry conditions continue into mid-October, then the issue might provide some support for prices.
COARSE GRAIN
The weather risk possibilities now start to extend. Argentina’s corn planting is now gaining pace. For now, though, these regions have no issues. Northern summer crops are now largely mature and being harvested. In that context, major threats to these crops’ yields are unlikely. Southern winter crop issues are restricted to a couple of regions in Australia. Their significance is local rather than global.
OILSEEDS
Oilseed weather issues are minimal for now. Previous issues, for US soybean and Black Sea sunflower crops, have come to an end. The next risk phase has begun with Brazilian soybean planting. These regions have no issues for now, but rainfall will need to increase in October. The weather forecast horizon will extend there by week’s end, likely generating greater market focus.
AUSTRALIA
Winter Crops
Australia’s winter crop regions mostly have enough soil moisture for good or better crops. Exceptions remain in Queensland and the southern interior. However, these exceptions are only a modest mitigation on likely large crops elsewhere.
Queensland regions, from north of the Darling Downs and up, have been too dry for unirrigated crops for some time. We therefore suspect there has been some yield loss here. However, this late in the season, further losses are unlikely. The area’s production is modest, and irrigation is prevalent. Thus, the impact on Australian crop estimates is likely modest.
Southern interior production remains at risk. The region has received some rain recently. Weather forecasters, though, expect little rain over the next fortnight. Temperatures are rising seasonally, so crops now need moisture. That combination merits an ‘alert’ on the region. This area’s production is significant in Australian terms, but the global weight is modest.
Summer Crops
Australian summer crop planting has begun and will speed up into October. The dry context in much of Queensland is also a concern for these crops. However, it is too early in the season for that context to prompt an active ‘watch’.
WORLD
Other Southern Winter Crops
Brazil and most of Argentina’s winter crop regions continued to have good or better soil moisture. Some of Argentina’s northern crop regions have become dry. Rainfall over the next week or so likely prevents that dryness from becoming a problem.
Northern Winter Crops
Growers are planting 2026 northern winter crops. Two existing watches remain. The most important is a ring around the Black Sea. The other is White Winter wheat regions in the US north-west.
The watch on Black Sea winter crop regions likely shrinks a little this week, but remains a major ‘watch’. The southernmost parts of Russia have received some rain. Forecasters expect more rain this week to add moisture, so these regions a ‘unwatched’. Forecasters expect the rest of the watch region to get only light rain. The soil moisture gain is likely modest and not enough to start healthy crops. There remains time for rain to fall, so the crop risk is therefore low for now. The worry can greatly increase during October if crops do not get a start ahead of winter.
US White Winter wheat regions are likely to remain too dry. Forecasters expect the region to see some rain over the next week, but much of that will quickly evaporate. Dryland crops will struggle to start in this context. These are long-term dry conditions that might also threaten irrigation water supply in the region.
Southern Summer Crops
Southern summer crop planting is now broadening.
Argentina is now in the main corn planting window. Most corn regions have good or better soil moisture. Some parts of Santiago del Estero and Chaco need more rain. Forecasters and models suggest these areas will get just enough to forestall any concerns for now.
Brazil’s soybean regions remain largely dry. However, most are likely to see some rain over the next week or so. The moisture gain will likely be fleeting. The rainfall is encouraging because it suggests the dry season is coming to an end. A good portent for more rain in, usually wetter, October.
Northern Summer Crops
Ukraine and Russia’s summer crop issues are winding down into the northern autumn. Sunflower and soybean yield losses will now come to an end.
In the United States, the decline in soybean yields in the northern Mississippi Delta and adjacent areas likely ends soon.
Corn crop losses in parts of Europe are now set for the season. Rain may interrupt harvesting this week, but presents little threat to production.
Canada’s Prairies are now reaching the late stages of harvesting. Weather forecasters expect favourable harvest conditions for another week or so.
