THE WATCHLIST:
Receding risk line
With September almost upon us, northern summer crop risk is receding.
AUSTRALIA
Australia’s winter crops likely continue with sufficient or better moisture in most places. The southern interior likely remains the exception. Crop forecasts likely remain stable for now.
WORLD
WHEAT
Growers will soon start planting 2026 northern winter crops. Some important areas around the Black Sea are very dry, so they are a ‘watch’. The crop risk is low for now. There is plenty of time for moisture to accumulate and start crops.
COARSE GRAIN
We seem to have passed peak coarse grain crop estimates for the northern summer. Crop losses will continue for a short while longer in Europe, Ukraine and Russia. And, the Profarmer Crop Tour in the US has likely seen the consensus notch down a little from the USDA’s very-high bar. Here, at the end of August, northern summer crop risks will now recede. Any losses will shortly be set as the development window gives way to maturing and harvesting.
OILSEEDS
Oilseed weather issues continue to worsen somewhat. US soybean crops in parts of the Mississippi Delta are likely seeing yields decline. Sunflowerseed and soybean crops continue shrinking across Europe, Ukraine, and Russia. Both issues have been significant enough to help prices rise.
AUSTRALIA
We can say the same this week as last: “Most Australian winter crop regions likely continue to have adequate or better soil moisture. The southern interior likely remains the exception. Forecasters, yet again, expect only light rain in this area. This area needs substantial rain before temperatures rise. Otherwise, further crop downgrades are likely.”
WORLD
Other Southern Winter Crops
Argentina’s winter crop regions mostly have sufficient soil moisture for now. The western edge could use some more rain, but there is time. Brazil‘s winter crop regions will continue to have abundant moisture.
Northern Summer Crops
Northern summer crops continue to have multiple dryness issues. These issues have reduced production, but that will soon end. The crop development window is now drawing to a close for many of these crops. Once that window closes, the losses end as the crops mature into harvest. More generally, risk now recedes for all northern summer crops.
Crops continue to shrink in parts of Ukraine and Russia. Another week of no rain and warm temperatures harmed crops. And forecasters expect that pattern to persist into early September. The limitation on crop losses is now likely to be time rather than a turn in the weather. The development window will soon close.
United States’ summer crop worries worsen over the week ahead. An area, centred on the northern Mississippi Delta and adjacent areas, likely now has declining yields. And the ‘losing’ region may yet expand somewhat. The time and place mean this is much more a soybean issue than a corn issue. Corn yield losses are likely minor. Soybean losses, though, are likely material in US and world terms.
Crop losses continue in parts of Europe. Forecasters expect rain in some of the dry western regions. The rain is likely too late to restore yields, but it will arrest any further decline. Losses will continue elsewhere for another fortnight.
Canada’s Prairies saw some yield declines earlier in the season. Recent rains arrested those declines. Crops are now largely either in the maturing or harvesting stage.
Summer crops in China are unlikely to develop any weather issues over the next week or so. Corn crops are now largely maturing or being harvest, so their risk level is receding. Soybean crops will soon join them.
Northern Winter Crops
Northern winter harvesting is coming to an end. Growers will begin planting 2026 crops in September. Several major crop regions are extremely dry. Among them are: eastern and southern Ukraine, southern Russia, Romania, and US HRW and WW wheat regions. China’s major winter wheat regions are also on the dry side. Of those, weather forecasters expect good rain in China and the US. The soil moisture boost in both places will be timely.
The Black Sea locations are unlikely to be so lucky. Being so early in the season, the crop risk is low. There is plenty of time for moisture to accumulate and give crops a start. And, chances are, it will rain. Nonetheless, it has not rained to date, so we have put them at ‘watch’.
Southern Summer Crops
Growers will soon start planting soybeans in Brazil. Most Brazilian soybean regions are bone dry right now. And weather forecasters are not expecting anything that will change that over the next week or so. That context is quite normal for this time of the year. So, no cause for disquiet now. Rainfall normally starts to increase during September.
