THE WATCHLIST:
Quiet time quite quiet
The Watchlist features only a minor worry about Argentina’s corn. Such a short list is not unusual at this time of year, with few crop regions active
AUSTRALIA
The west of Australia’s major summer crop regions will likely remain too dry. Dryland crop potentials are likely falling.
WORLD
WHEAT
The northern winter means wheat crops there are increasingly dormant, leaving cold as the only, unlikely, risk.
COARSE GRAIN
Argentina’s dry north-west remains a ‘watch’. The amount of corn at risk, though, is too modest to have much market impact.
OILSEEDS
Oilseeds have no current issues. Brazil’s patchy rain pattern, though, remains a factor for soybean yields.
Southern Summer Crops
Most of Argentina‘s corn and soybean regions now have better soil moisture following last week’s rain. And, forecasters expect more rain in most regions this week. Both apply to some of the ‘watch’ region in Argentina’s north-west. Importantly, last week’s rain events missed much of Santiago del Estero. Rain over the next week or so might fix this issue, but if not, then crops here will struggle. The region’s production share is modest, so global market impact will also likely be modest.
Brazil’s summer crop regions are likely to mostly have supportive soil moisture over the next week or so. Continuing the patchy rain pattern this season, a couple of regions will become drier. The overall picture suggests no major issues. The continued patchy rain, though, likely has some impact. Upgrades to yield forecasts would seem less likely in that context.
Australia’s major summer crop regions received no rain last week. Weather forecasters expect substantial rain in northern NSW this week, including dry western parts of the region. Given likely temperatures, crops will likely only benefit briefly. Dryland crops in the west of the crop regions will thus continue to struggle. We raised these regions to ‘alert’, meaning crop downgrades are imminent. The issue is not large enough to have any global market impact. The local price impact is greater, but it is contained because many crops in this region are irrigated.
Northern Winter Crops
Two US winter wheat regions remain had a dryness watch. Spreading crop dormancy, though, means the dryness issue is on hold until the northern spring. We have removed the watch from western US Hard Red Winter Wheat regions for that reason. We have, though, marked some US White Winter wheat regions for dryland crop losses after a very dry autumn. The main risk to US wheat crops now is from extreme cold. Weather forecasters are not expecting any such events in the week ahead.
Winter crop regions elsewhere will mostly continue to have sufficient or better soil moisture. There are some slightly dry exceptions in the south-west Europe and southern Russia. Spreading crop dormancy means that any moisture issues will now pause. Extreme cold is now the main, but unlikely, risk. Forecasters do not expect any extreme cold events in these crop regions over the next week or so.
Southern Winter Crops
Southern winter crop harvesting will likely continue with only minor weather interruptions. These events are unlikely to generate major delays or crop quality issues.
Northern Summer Crops
Northern summer crop harvesting has largely come to an end. We’ll resume monitoring in the northern spring.
