THE WATCHLIST:
No Biggie
Crop worries are minor for now. Lower yields are likely in some parts of Argentina. And there is a slow ‘watch’ on US HRW wheat.
AUSTRALIA
Australia’s dryland summer crop yields are likely still declining.
WORLD
WHEAT
Northern winter wheat crops are starting to break dormancy. Warmer US HRW Wheat regions’ lack of moisture has started to matter. This dry area is modestly supportive of wheat prices.
COARSE GRAIN
The Watchlisted area of Argentina has shrunk substantially. The remaining areas, primarily in Buenos Aires, are likely to see crop forecasts lowered.
OILSEEDS
The same dry regions in Argentina are an issue for oilseeds. Soybean crop forecasts are likely to decline.
Southern Summer Crops
Argentina‘s summer crop issues have evolved. Less production is at risk, but the remaining problem areas are worsening. We unwatched some very large production regions in central Argentina. Existing moisture and likely rains mean that analysts are now unlikely to cut crop forecasts here. Much of Buenos Aires, though, has not had enough rain for some time. Forecasters do not expect that to change this week, so the alert region has expanded somewhat. Cooler temperatures last week bought some time. Nonetheless, yield declines are now likely, so lower crop forecasts are likely. The market will remain mindful of this issue because the production risk remains material at a global scale. Healthy global supply, however, means the issue likely provides only modest support for prices.
Brazil’s summer crops are largely on track to meet forecasts. Forecasters expect substantial rain over the next week or so. The rain is mostly supportive of crop yields. Some delays to harvesting or planting are possible. Large crops from Brazil support global supply, absorbing the impact of possible losses elsewhere.
Australia’s major summer crop yields continue to fall. The impact, though, is on still-developing, dryland crops, reducing the overall impact. Those crops in NSW and the immediately adjacent Queensland are likely suffering the most. These areas have had little or no moisture in 2026. Further into Queensland, moisture has been intermittently available. Forecasters expect little rain in that latter region over the next week or so. Even with rain, the yield losses are unlikely to be reversed. The ‘positive’ is that maturation and harvesting will proceed. The lost yield will likely continue to boost local feed prices. Australia’s dryland production, however, is not large enough to impact the global prices.
Northern Winter Crops
Northern winter crop dormancy has started to break and will spread. Extreme cold weather remains a risk, but the northern spring means that risk now fades.
Western US Hard Red Winter Wheat regions remain very dry. Again, forecasters do not expect that to change for another week or so. Warmer temperatures had nudged crops out of dormancy, but the rise will be inconsistent. Crops here need moisture, but the issue is not yet urgent. This area, therefore, remains a ‘watch’. The issue is most likely only a supportive factor for prices at most.
Southern Winter Crops
Monitoring will resume in the southern autumn.
Northern Summer Crops
We’ll resume monitoring in the northern spring.
