THE WATCHLIST:
Edge cases
Crop worries remain. Lower yields remain likely in parts of Argentina. And the ‘watch’ on US HRW wheat remains slow for now.
AUSTRALIA
Dryland summer crop yields were likely still declining last week in NSW. Rain, over the past weekend and in the week ahead, may staunch those losses. Yield recovery is unlikely.
WORLD
WHEAT
Northern winter wheat crops are starting to break dormancy. Most crops are likely to remain in good condition. A hefty chunk of US HRW Wheat regions is an exception. Western HRW regions will likely continue to have little or no soil moisture. Temperatures there are trending up to levels where that lack of moisture will begin to matter. This dry area has likely already been modestly supportive of wheat prices, but not the primary driver of recent rises. Analysts are unlikely to cut crop estimates for now. These crops, though, will soon need rain, so a faster evolution of this issue is not far away.
COARSE GRAIN
Soil moisture will likely decline in some of Argentina’s corn regions. These areas are primarily in Buenos Aires. Analysts are likely to cut crop forecasts modestly. The cuts would be material in global terms, but come in a context where global supply can absorb those losses. Any global price impact will thus be modest and likely difficult to discern among other influences.
OILSEEDS
Soil moisture will also likely decline in some of Argentina’s soybean regions. As for corn, the areas are primarily in Buenos Aires. Analysts are likely to cut crop forecasts somewhat. The cuts would be material in global terms, but the global supply context can absorb those losses. Any global price impact is likely to be both modest and hard to discern among other influences.
Southern Summer Crops
Northern Winter Crops
Southern Winter Crops
Monitoring will resume in the southern autumn.
Northern Summer Crops
We’ll resume monitoring in the northern spring.
