THE WATCHLIST:
Calm after the storm?
Some US wheat was at risk from weekend storms. Damage assessments will emerge early this week. Argentina’s dry crop regions are a more sustained issue.
AUSTRALIA
Australia’s major summer crop regions are likely to be hot and dry, reducing dryland yields some more.
WORLD
WHEAT
Northern winter wheat crops are largely dormant. Weekend storms in the US were a threat to SRW and HRW crops, but widespread damage is unlikely. Assessments will emerge early this week.
COARSE GRAIN
Argentina’s southern and south-western corn regions have been dry long enough to be on The Watchlist.
OILSEEDS
Soybeans in those same Argentinian regions are also an alert.
Southern Summer Crops
Argentina‘s summer crop has become uneven over the past few weeks. The south and south-west have become considerably drier. The south-west is worse off, having had a longer period with less top- and sub-soil moisture. The south’s drying is more recent, and it had substantial subsoil moisture until recently. These areas are a ‘watch’ of global scale, but given global supply is healthy, are likely to support prices at most.
Brazil’s summer crops continue to enjoy mostly good conditions. Forecasters expect enough rain in most regions, thereby avoiding any extended periods of stress or dryness. The weather is also likely to be conducive to early soybean harvesting and second-crop corn planting. The conditions are unlikely to prompt any major revisions to crop forecasts. And, they likely confirm hefty Brazilian soybean supplies in the coming months.
Australia’s major summer crop regions are likely to be hot and dry. Good for harvesting, but not good for any still-developing dryland crops. Dryland crops, already below potential, likely shrink somewhat more. The dry conditions are boosting prices via the supply side, adding to pressure from extra feed demand. The global market impact is likely modest given dryland crop size.
Northern Winter Crops
Northern winter crops are mostly dormant. The main risk to crops now is extreme cold weather. The large storms moving through the US over the weekend presented a threat to some winter crops. SRW wheat in some of the Midwest. And HRW in central and eastern Oklahoma and Kansas. The cold threat, though, seems to come largely after the storms have provided significant snow. ‘Some’ winterkill is possible, but seems unlikely to be large-scale. Assessments after the storms will emerge in the early part of this week.
Southern Winter Crops
Monitoring will resume in the southern autumn.
Northern Summer Crops
We’ll resume monitoring in the northern spring.
