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THE WATCHLIST: No Biggie
Crop worries are minor for now. Lower yields are likely in some parts of Argentina. And there is a slow ‘watch’ on US HRW wheat.
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THE WATCHLIST: Argentina crop drop
Argentina’s summer crops close in on a widespread decline, but global supply blunts the impact. Some US HRW wheat crops need moisture with spring imminent.
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THE WATCHLIST: Kill or fill in Argentina
A critical week for Argentina’s crops hinges on unusually uncertain rain forecasts. Also, Brazil’s Mato Grosso is soggy, creating complications, but, for now, not changes to crop forecasts.
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THE WATCHLIST: Still too dry in Argentina
A large chunk of Argentina’s corn and soybean crops remains too dry. Along with the same in far-south Brazil, the watch is global market scale. Healthy global supply means the watch supports, rather than boosts, prices.
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THE WATCHLIST: Argentina’s dry widens, deepens
More of Argentina’s corn and soybean crops sit in dry soils with little prospect of change soon. The dry area is material for the global market, and so will likely support prices.
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TURF WAR: Diversion: Possible
The market, for quite some time, was obsessed with where all those US soybeans were going, if not to China. Elsewhere was the possible, but unproven, answer. But would they? After last Friday’s export sales report, the diversion to non-China destinations is largely in the data.
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THE WATCHLIST: Calm after the storm?
Some US wheat was at risk from weekend storms. Damage assessments will emerge early this week. Argentina’s dry crop regions are a more sustained issue.
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CORNUCOPIA: Until Next Year
Merry Christmas to all who celebrate this time of year. Cornucopia will take a short break and rejoin you in the new year.
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TURF WAR: Mind the soybean gap
The tangled web woven by trade wars/truces and shutdowns continues to complicate tracking oilseed SnDs. The US soybean export rate is likely too slow for the USDA’s current forecast. But by how much?
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THE WATCHLIST: Exhibit closed
Now is generally a quiet time for crop risk. And this year is no exception. We can identify the odd small or nascent issue, but it would be a stretch to suggest they might influence global prices.
